How Brain Drain Shapes Economic Divergence within the EU

Free movement was supposed to bring Europeans closer together. But is it actually doing that?

Since the end of the Cold War, Europe has embraced integration, mobility, and the promise of shared opportunity. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the 1993 Maastricht Treaty, which created the EU, opened a new era in which borders “collapsed” and the dreams of many for a better future arose. What is more, free movement became a symbol of peace, progress, and possibility; exactly what Europe needed after decades of devastating wars.

What started as an idea of political and economic integration grew to creating a single currency, a unified foreign and security policy, common citizenship rights, and advancing cooperation in the areas of immigration, asylum, and judicial affairs. The ultimate recognition of the EU came in 2012, when it was awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2012, in light of the union’s efforts to promote peace and democracy in Europe.

Numbers also justify the “European dream”: The total estimated 281 million people living in a country other than their countries of birth in 2020 was 128 million more than in 1990 and over three times the estimated number in 1970, 87 million of which were hosted by Europe. Comprising over 30% of the global international migrant stock, Europe is clearly one of the top destinations for migrants. Yet beneath these impressive numbers lies a far more complicated reality. Mobility has undeniably expanded the already existing opportunities and opened new ones, but its benefits have not been shared evenly. In fact, statistics show that the percentage of highly educated people has significantly increased. Even countries within the EU are not exempt from this: almost one-in-five highly educated and skilled people in Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia leave home for opportunities abroad.

The places that welcome such a highly educated workforce flourish. But what about the regions left behind? They become what are called “talent development traps”.

The EU wanted mobility. It got mobility. Now the question is: can it handle the consequences?

The concept of “brain drain” emerged after the Second World War, when governments in “advanced” economies, first the United States and, in the late 80s and the beginning of the 90s, Western Europe, recognized the strategic value of attracting highly educated workers. Upon realizing the benefits this brings to their economy, the aforementioned countries started investing heavily in science and technology, creating better opportunities and a strong demand for high-skilled professionals. In this context, high-income states developed policies to secure talent needed for economic growth, technological development, and national competitiveness. Why is this bad for Europe?

One of the main risks of this brain drain is the heightening of economic disparities between Member States. As highly skilled workers move to economically stronger countries, regions with already weak economies, particularly in Eastern Europe, face a depletion of human capital, hindering their potential for growth and development. This phenomenon is therefore a threat to the cohesion of the European single market.

For instance, research by Agnieszka Fihel and Marek Okólski, shows how 11 CEE countries experienced a demographic decline, with nearly three-quarters of the decline resulting from post-EU accession emigration. However, it is important to acknowledge that emigration in these countries began long before they joined the EU. Backing up this claim is the estimation that almost 20 million people emigrated from Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe between 1990 and 2012. In Bulgaria and the Baltic States, population decline is estimated to be between 16 and 26% of the total population from 1991 to 2015.

As of right now, Romanians make up the largest group, accounting for 27% of intra-EU migrants, followed by Poles (12%) and Italians (10%). The main “receivers” are the economic powerhouses Germany and Luxembourg in the EU, but also Switzerland, which, although not part of the EU, is part of Schengen. Germany is the leading destination, receiving over 30% migrants, or 3.4 million by 2021. Luxembourg stands out, with 42% of its population consisting of EU migrants.

Is the East–West migration about more than just job opportunities?

Undeniably, Europe’s East-West economic disparities have historically tempted skilled workers to migrate westward. Despite significant improvements in the last two decades, many parts of Europe remain with relatively low wages and limited opportunities for professional development, compared to Western Europe.

In 2020, for instance, Eurostat data revealed that average monthly net earnings in countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia were only a fraction of those in Germany, Belgium, or the Netherlands. This discrepancy, in the eyes of many young professionals, inevitably draws them away from home.

However, it is of utmost importance to highlight that the brain drain effect goes deeper than pure economics. Poor career prospects might be the largest motive, but many emigrants also shared that the dissatisfaction with local governance and socio-political climates was a deciding factor when it came to moving. Corruption and not properly working social systems, visible through underfunded health care and outdated education systems, all feed into a cycle of resentment for their motherlands, leaving people no choice, but to leave.

What is the “human side” of this issue?

In a United Nations forecast for 2100, some 16 of the top 20 countries with the biggest anticipated population declines were in the CEE region.

Bulgaria is one of the regions most affected by the brain drain worldwide. Since 1990, the country has lost around 22% of its population, and forecasts point to a further decline of 23% by 2050. Once a “rural” country, it is estimated that there will be no villages left in Bulgaria by 2060.

While one might easily conclude the situation in Bulgaria is the aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union when the borders opened and people finally had the opportunity to leave the country if they wished to, brain drain is not a phenomenon typical only for ex-Soviet bloc countries. In fact, the same is true for a country located at the other end of the continent: 30% of Portuguese young people live abroad, while 70% of Portuguese immigrants are under 40.

Brain drain is a trap. The effects of it haunt not one, but many generations. It makes the skilled labour force shrink, productivity decreases, higher education rates decline, and demographic changes occur. This turns into a vicious circle that forces new generations of young people to consider emigrating as well.

So, is there a remedy for brain drain?

As we have already established, brain drain is usually a symptom of an “illness” a country has been experiencing for quite a long time. It is not something that happens overnight, but rather the result of years of negligence.

The first and most obvious way to tackle brain drain is through addressing fundamental issues with policies by national governments, intending to improve governance, strengthen institutions, and enhance the delivery of public services. Although this has proven to be extremely difficult for the countries, as often a lack of resources or higher levels of corruption come in the way, in recent years, an increasing number of programs, which support young people and encourage them to pursue their careers at home, have been established.

Despite the fact that interest in emigration within the EU has grown, relatively little research examines the issue from the perspective of EU institutions. Roos (2023) shows how contestation from CEE Member States has prompted a limited set of policy adjustments at the EU level. One example is the introduction of compensation mechanisms for the loss of human capital, which the European Council endorsed after sustained demands from high-emigration countries such as Romania and Bulgaria.

A recent research argues that the European Commission has “quietly shifted its stance on intra-EU emigration: what was once considered a neutral byproduct of freedom of movement is now increasingly framed as a regional challenge”. Emigration has been politicized internally, with rising concern over human-capital losses and their impact on regional cohesion.

From the side of the European institutions, light has been shed on the issue, debates have been initiated, leading to the challenges of brain drain being increasingly acknowledged and tackled.

As part of its objective of increasing European Research Area (ERA) participation among Widening countries, the European Commission has allocated €161 million to calls that explicitly aim to reverse brain drain in countries with falling populations. Funded projects are intended to support early-career researchers and encourage brain circulation, enticing scientists who have built networks abroad to return to their home countries.

An opinion piece by the European Committee of Regions (CoR) further shows that brain drain is no longer ignored at the EU level; instead, it is formally recognized as a structural challenge that threatens territorial cohesion, regional development, and long-term sustainability of the EU. The CoR calls for multilevel, coordinated policy action and states that solutions should address all “subcomponents”, namely, brain gain, brain waste, brain circulation, and re-migration.

Importantly, the growing tension between two EU goals has been highlighted: free labour movement on one side; economic and social convergence among regions on the other. The CoR affirms that freedom of movement is a core EU principle. But crucially, it insists that mobility “should be voluntary, not forced by lack of opportunity.” The Opinion stresses that the EU’s cohesion policy should be closely linked to anti–brain-drain efforts: cohesion funds, regional development programmes, and social and employment inclusion measures should be used to help correct imbalances between sending and receiving countries.

Finally, the committee warns that if brain drain remains unaddressed, it may undermine the long-term sustainability of the European project. Sending regions may become trapped in low-skill, low-growth trajectories, making future transitions toward knowledge-based economies increasingly difficult.

While these are all things one could easily conclude on their own, it is of extreme importance that the issue has been recognised on a European level, yet it is still far from a final solution.

Bibliography:Interactive World Migration Report 2024: https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/msite/wmr-2024-interactive/

EU seeks to stem brain drain: https://euranetplus-inside.eu/eu-seeks-to-stem-brain-drain/

Insight: Borderless Europe fights brain drain as talent heads north | Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/borderless-europe-fights-brain-drain-talent-heads-north-2024-11-14/

The brain drain challenge: Strategies to retain talent in emerging Europe - Emerging Europe: https://emerging-europe.com/analysis/the-brain-drain-challenge-strategies-to-retain-talent-in-emerging-europe/

Ghost villages and the slow death of rural Bulgaria - Equal Times: https://www.equaltimes.org/ghost-villages-and-the-slow-death

The emptying out of rural areas and the accompanying brain drain are fuelling inequality in the EU’s most depopulated regions - Equal Times: https://www.equaltimes.org/the-emptying-out-of-rural-areas?lang=en

Brain Drain in the EU: addressing the challenge at all levels | European Committee of the Regions : https://cor.europa.eu/en/our-work/opinions/cdr-4645-2019

Brain drain: an historical and conceptual framework: https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers4/010022327-3.pdf

Framing brain drain: between solidarity and skills in European labor mobility: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09692290.2019.1626755

Compensating for the effects of emigration. Eastern Europe and policy response to EU freedom of movement: Journal of European Public Policy: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2021.1984547

Population decline in the post-communist countries of the European Union: https://shs.cairn.info/journal-population-and-societies-2019-6-page-1?lang=en